Markets Report: Week of October 18, 2021

Markets Report: Week of October 18, 2021

Welcome to the Markets Report, our weekly look back at peaks, pops and omni-asset performance.

Oct 19

Markets Report: Week of October 18, 2021

Last week, the autumn wind roared and inflation fears abounded. Crypto soared, the temperatures dropped and commodity prices readied for a cold winter. Stocks were up across major indices, wine and farmland gained institutional attention and sports cards lengthened their tear on the year.

Here's your breakdown:

Stocks (S&P +2.76%)

The S&P 500 was up 2.76% on the week, although concerns about inflation drove mixed results across sectors. In general, investors moved to tech stocks and away from banks as a hedge. Fears of inflation also come with the growing specter of rising rates: Bloomberg reported their model traditional asset portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds had the worst monthly drop in September since the pandemic started.

Real Estate (VGSLX +3.20%)

Public, private, commercial, residential, you name it—real estate of all flavors continues to boom. Publicly traded REITs edged up on the week (VGSLX +3.20% w/w), while market conditions across the country strengthened despite inflation fears. The National Association of REALTORs (NAR) reports that market conditions in 84% of tracked US metros are stronger than a year ago. This is great for the investor but a drain for the consumer: median asking price was up 12.6% year-over-year, and multifamily rent popped 11.2%. Go deep here.

Crypto (BTC +7.62%)

Bitcoin rocketed well above $60,000, up +7.62% against the previous week and flirting with yearly highs. Today, the first public exchange traded fund tied to the coin's value launched on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). As of Friday's close, Ethereum was up on the week (+5.56%), Solana was steady and Cardono slightly down. More broadly, the dark cloud of regulation looms. The International Monetary Fund is the latest to advocate for increased government oversight—this time through the frame of macroeconomic risk. Skim highlights or go deep.

Gold & Commodities (WTI Crude +4.33%)

Gold was up slightly on the week (IAU +0.72% w/w), but the story here is oil. US oil futures popped more than 4%, buoyed by a supply crunch. Experts predict that rising oil prices are not temporary, as may be the case with gas' elevated cost, but rather a permanent effect of shifting market conditions. One Goldman Sachs analyst suggests that declining investment in production infrastructure (read: good ol' drillin') in favor of cleaner energy sources is the cause.

Sports Cards (Football +0.88%)

It's stock up for America's three favorite pastimes. Alt's indices for the top ball sports all showed growth as football season enters meaningful territory and baseball postseason nets its highest viewership in years. The NBA tips off tonight, and optimism for early career prospects has increased card value for some homegrown fan favorites (Celtics' Romeo Langford +14.66% w/w:, Warriors' Jordan Poole +11.62%). 

In the world of transactions, there's another live auction for a PSA 10 Patrick Mahomes rookie card which last sold for $528,000 in August. Get it while he's hot (397 yds, 2 TDs on Sunday).

Winners

  • Hollywood Brown, Baltimore Ravens (+13.46% w/w) - After a horrid case of the drops earlier this year, Lamar's favorite deep threat is surging as the AFC favorite Ravens pile up wins. Despite a middling performance in Sunday's thrashing of the Chargers (4 catches for 35 yards, and yes, a drop), Brown's season has taken a redemptive tone after he showed out Weeks 4 and 5 with a combined 3 TDs.
  • CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys (+6.40% w/w) - The quiet chapter of Lamb's season ended Sunday as he roared alive with 149 yards and two touchdowns, the second of which delivered Bill Belichick and the Patriots their fourth straight loss at home. Though the season is young, expect Lamb's profile to continue rising alongside the success of the Cowboys ("America's team"). 

Losers

  • Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays (-22.26% w/w) - It's a sad week for Randy, whose cards have bled nearly a quarter of their value in the past week after 2020's postseason darling was bounced from this year's contest. From stealing home in Game 1 to sent home in Game 4, Arozarena is collateral damage in the baseball upset of the year (go Sox). 
  • Lonzo Ball, Chicago Bulls (-12.84%) - Investors aren't too bull-ish (wink wink) on Ball as he enters his fifth season on his third team, dangerously close to slipping into "just another guy" land. Chicago is projected to finish in the middle of the pack this year at 42.5 wins (PointsBet) even with a facelifted roster, but it remains to be seen whether Ball's impact will bounce the Bulls into a new tier.

 

Sports Card Asset ClassWeekly Growth 10/18/21
Football+0.88%
Basketball+0.80%
Baseball+0.04%
Hockey-0.19%
Soccer-1.47%

In other news

  • Wine: Fine wine continues to perform well on the year, up +3.85% m/m and +14.25% year-to-date (Liv-ex 100). It appears institutional investors are getting in on the fun; the Wall Street Journal reports a 75% increase in wine-related private equity deals in 2021 so far. Dig in here.
  • Whiskey: High-end bottles from Macallan and Springbank lead the charge on what looks to be a record-breaking year for rare whisky sales. Skim highlights or go deep. Anecdotally, a Macallan 74 sold for $85,942.08 in an auction that closed October 4th. Whether the buyer intends to drink the brown liquid inside the bottle? We'll never know. 
  • Farmland: A South American firm made a notable investment of greater than $100 million in US farmland, suggesting that institutional investors may look to double down on farmland as a hedge against inflation. Cornbelt farmland looks to be this year's big gainer, gaining value faster than eastern farmland. Skim highlights or go deep.
  • Startups: Your friend from college started a sustainable sweater brand during the pandemic and just closed a $4 million seed round. You're not just imagining it—venture capital is hotter than ever, as CB Insights reports a record-breaking $158 billion was invested by VC firms in Q3. Skim highlights (TechCrunch, paywalled) or go deep.

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